Between 1998 and 2004, CTSU, in collaboration with the Mexican Ministry of Health, established such a study in Mexico City, in which over 150,000 middle-aged adults (including 100,000 women and 50,000 men) provided information about their lifestyle and disease history, had physical measurements recorded (including weight, waist and hip circumference, blood pressure) and had a blood sample taken (for future biochemical and genetic studies).

All participants are now being tracked for mortality through linkage to Mexican national mortality databases; by December 2013, 16,000 were confirmed to have died. By relating participant’s characteristics at recruitment to death over the following decades, this study is now investigating the main causes of premature death in Mexico. The study is being done in collaboration with the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City.

In adults living in Mexico City at the start of the 21st century:

  • By age 60:
    • Nearly half of women and one third of men were obese (ie, had a BMI ≥30 kg/m2)
    • 1 in 5 had a confirmed diagnosis of diabetes mellitus
    • Half of men and women had measured or treated hypertension
  • Among younger men and women (eg, age 40) half of men and one third of women smoked cigarettes, with an average number of cigarettes smoked per day of 7 in men and 5 in women.

A resurvey of 10,000 surviving participants is taking place in 2015/16 to examine how lifestyles, physical measurements and blood biomarkers have changed over the past 15 years. This resurvey will allow for a better assessment of the relevance to premature death of characteristics that can vary over time (such as adiposity, diabetes, blood pressure, smoking and alcohol consumption).

Ongoing analyses are now examining the relevance of these, and other, characteristics to the main causes of premature death in Mexico (in particular cardiac and kidney disease).

The Mexico City Prospective Study has received funding from the Mexican Ministry of Health (Secretaria de Salud), the Mexican National Council of Science and Technology (Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia), the British Heart Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council, and the UK Wellcome Trust (grant number 058299/Z/99).

Our team

  • Colin Baigent
    Colin Baigent

    Professor of Epidemiology and Deputy Director, CTSU

  • Rory Collins
    Rory Collins

    Head of Nuffield Department of Population Health and BHF Professor of Medicine and Epidemiology

  • Jonathan  Emberson
    Jonathan Emberson

    Associate Professor, Medical Statistics and Epidemiology

  • Louisa Gnatiuc
    Louisa Gnatiuc

    Senior Epidemiologist

  • Will Herrington
    Will Herrington

    Senior Clinical Research Fellow, Renal Studies Group, Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit

  • Michael Hill
    Michael Hill

    Laboratory Scientific Director

  • Sarah Lewington
    Sarah Lewington

    Associate Professor of Statistical Epidemiology, Director of Graduate Studies (Taught courses)

  • Richard Peto
    Richard Peto

    Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Co-Director, CTSU

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