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Richard doll

Over a period of decades, large population-based observational studies have helped identify several major classic causes of premature death from non-communicable diseases (NCD), including hypertension, smoking, obesity (adiposity), harmful alcohol use, dyslipidaemia, diabetes, poor diet and physical inactivity. However, the effects of such factors vary greatly from one population to another. There is still substantial uncertainty as to how important these factors are in different settings, and how their importance is changing with time. At present, global estimates must depend mainly on mathematical extrapolation from findings in high-income countries. Direct evidence from low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) is important as it may in the long run improve local and regional NCD control strategies and actions. Moreover, LMIC findings may change global estimates significantly, thus strengthening our understanding of the NCD burden and the local relevance of its causes.

The aims of this consortium are to:

  • directly monitor the current and future effects of hypertension, smoking and the other classic causes of NCD mortality in many different populations over multiple decades
  • strengthen LMIC research capacity to conduct large, population-based NCD epidemiological studies that will produce reliable scientific findings for publication in high-impact journals
  • develop future leaders in NCD epidemiology who are well equipped to inform national and global health policy for NCD prevention and control.

Furthermore, a global system for maintaining such studies would facilitate greater collaboration between researchers, promote data sharing and its strategic use, and result in a global resource on the effects of lifestyle risk factors on premature death, which could be used to inform public health decision-making.

Participating studies

Follow the links to the collaborators' websites for details of the studies:

Coordinators

  • Valerie Beral
    Valerie Beral

    Professor of Epidemiology and Co-Director, CEU

  • Sarah Lewington
    Sarah Lewington

    Professor of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Director of Graduate Studies (Taught courses)

  • Richard Peto
    Richard Peto

    Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, Co-Director, CTSU

location
 


Entry years

Number of participants (millions)

stored blood

africa




South Africa Retrospective 1999 - 2007 0.48 No

Americas




American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study I 1959 1.1 (M & F) No
American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study II 1982 - 1983 1.2 (M & F) Some
American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study III 2006 - 2013 0.3 (M & F) Yes
Cuba Prospective Study 1996 - 2002 0.15 (M & F) No
US Nurses' Health Studies I  1976 0.12 (F) Some
US Nurses' Health Studies II 1989 0.12 (F) Some
US Physicians' Health Studies I & II 1982, 1999 0.04 (M) Some
US Health Professionals' Follow Up Study 1986 0.05 (M) Yes
US Women's Health Study 1992 - 1995 0.04 (F) Yes
Mexico City Prospective Study 1998 - 2004 0.15 (M & F) Yes
Million Veteran Program 2011 - 0.4 (M & F) Yes
Multi-ethnic Cohort Study 1993 - 1996 0.2 (M & F) Some
National Health Interview Study 1997 - 2004 0.2 (M & F) No

asia




Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration 1981 - 1992 0.6 (M & F) No
Chennai Prospective Study 1998 - 2001 0.5 (M & F) No
China Kadoorie Biobank 2004 - 2008 0.5 (M & F) Yes
Elderly Health Service, Hong Kong 1998 - 2001 0.07 (M & F) No
Guangzhou Biobank 2003 - 2008 0.03 (M & F) Yes
Hong Kong Retrospective (30k) 1998 0.03  No
Japanese Prospective Studies Various 0.4 (M & F) No

Korean Cancer Prevention I (Int J Ca 2008;123:1892-96)

1992 - 1995 1.2 (M & F) No
Korean Cancer Prevention II 2004 - 2011 0.15 (M & F)
Yes
Million Death Study (120k) 2002 - 2004 0.12 No
Million Death Study (>100k) 2010 - 2012 >0.1 No
Mumbai I and II 1991 - 1997 0.16 No
Mumbai III 2015 - - Yes
PEACE Millions pilot phase 2015 -  0.4 (M & F) Yes
Russian Prospective Study 1999 - 2008 0.21 (M & F) Spots
Taiwan Cohort Study 1994 - 2006 0.46  (M & F) Yes
Taiwan MJ Cohort (Cohort profile) 1994 0.5 (M &F)
Tianjin Retrospective (300k) 2010 - 2014 0.38 No
Trivandrum Urban/Rural Tobacco Study 2002 - 2006 0.4 (M) Some

australia




45 and Up 2006 - 2009 0.26 (M & F) No

europe




Breakthrough Generations 2003 - 2011 0.11 (F) Yes
EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) 1993 - 1999 0.48 (M & F) Some
JANUS Serum Bank 1973 - 2004 0.29 (M & F) Yes
Million Women Study 1996 - 2001 1.31 (F) Some
Netherlands Cohort Study 1986 0.12 (M & F) No
Norwegian Women and Cancer study 1991 - 2006 0.17 (F) Some
Stockholm Public Health Cohort 2002 - 2010 0.1 (M & F) No
UK Biobank 2006 - 2010 0.5 (M & F) Yes

international




Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration Various 2.3 (M & F) No
Global BMI Mortality Collaboration Various 10.6 (M & F) No
Indirect Smoking Mortality Estimates 1950s - -
INTERHEART retrospective 1997 - 2002 - Yes
INTERSTROKE retrospective 2007 - 2010 - Yes
NCD Risk Factor Collaboration Various 20 (M & F) No
Prospective Studies Collaboration Various 1.2 (M & F) No
PURE (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiological Study) 2003 - 2009 0.4 (M & F) No
US National Cancer Institute BMI Pooling Project Various 1.46 (M & F) No
US National Cancer Institute Cohort Consortium Various - Some


Related research themes