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  • A review of lifestyle, metabolic risk factors and blood-based biomarkers for early diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    11 January 2019

    We aimed to review the epidemiologic literature examining lifestyle, metabolic risk factors, and blood-based biomarkers including multi-omics (genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics) and to discuss how these predictive markers can inform early diagnosis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). A search of the PubMed database was conducted in June 2018 to review epidemiologic studies of (1) lifestyle and metabolic risk factors for PDAC, genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and risk prediction models incorporating these factors and (2) blood-based biomarkers for PDAC (conventional diagnostic markers, metabolomics, and proteomics). Prospective cohort studies have reported at least twenty possible risk factors for PDAC, including smoking, heavy alcohol drinking, adiposity, diabetes, and pancreatitis, but the relative risks (RR) and population attributable fractions of individual risk factors are small (mostly <10%). High-throughput technologies have continued to yield promising genetic, metabolic, and protein biomarkers in addition to conventional biomarkers such as carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9). Nonetheless, most studies have utilised a hospital-based case-control design, and the diagnostic accuracy is low in studies that collected pre-diagnostic samples. Risk prediction models incorporating lifestyle and metabolic factors as well as other clinical parameters have shown good discrimination and calibration. Combination of traditional risk factors, genomics and blood-based biomarkers can help identify high-risk populations and inform clinical decisions. Multi-omics investigations can provide valuable insights into disease aetiology, but prospective cohort studies that collect pre-diagnostic samples and validation in independent studies are warranted.

  • GWAS Identifies Risk Locus for Erectile Dysfunction and Implicates Hypothalamic Neurobiology and Diabetes in Etiology.

    11 January 2019

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is a common condition affecting more than 20% of men over 60 years, yet little is known about its genetic architecture. We performed a genome-wide association study of ED in 6,175 case subjects among 223,805 European men and identified one locus at 6q16.3 (lead variant rs57989773, OR 1.20 per C-allele; p = 5.71 × 10-14), located between MCHR2 and SIM1. In silico analysis suggests SIM1 to confer ED risk through hypothalamic dysregulation. Mendelian randomization provides evidence that genetic risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus is a cause of ED (OR 1.11 per 1-log unit higher risk of type 2 diabetes). These findings provide insights into the biological underpinnings and the causes of ED and may help prioritize the development of future therapies for this common disorder.

  • Global, regional, and national burden of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    11 January 2019

    BACKGROUND: The number of individuals living with dementia is increasing, negatively affecting families, communities, and health-care systems around the world. A successful response to these challenges requires an accurate understanding of the dementia disease burden. We aimed to present the first detailed analysis of the global prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of dementia as captured by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, and highlight the most important messages for clinicians and neurologists. METHODS: GBD 2016 obtained data on dementia from vital registration systems, published scientific literature and surveys, and data from health-service encounters on deaths, excess mortality, prevalence, and incidence from 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016, through systematic review and additional data-seeking efforts. To correct for differences in cause of death coding across time and locations, we modelled mortality due to dementia using prevalence data and estimates of excess mortality derived from countries that were most likely to code deaths to dementia relative to prevalence. Data were analysed by standardised methods to estimate deaths, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; computed as the sum of YLLs and YLDs), and the fractions of these metrics that were attributable to four risk factors that met GBD criteria for assessment (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages). FINDINGS: In 2016, the global number of individuals who lived with dementia was 43·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 37·8-51·0), increased from 20.2 million (17·4-23·5) in 1990. This increase of 117% (95% UI 114-121) contrasted with a minor increase in age-standardised prevalence of 1·7% (1·0-2·4), from 701 cases (95% UI 602-815) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 712 cases (614-828) per 100 000 population in 2016. More women than men had dementia in 2016 (27·0 million, 95% UI 23·3-31·4, vs 16.8 million, 14.4-19.6), and dementia was the fifth leading cause of death globally, accounting for 2·4 million (95% UI 2·1-2·8) deaths. Overall, 28·8 million (95% UI 24·5-34·0) DALYs were attributed to dementia; 6·4 million (95% UI 3·4-10·5) of these could be attributed to the modifiable GBD risk factors of high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, smoking, and a high intake of sugar-sweetened beverages. INTERPRETATION: The global number of people living with dementia more than doubled from 1990 to 2016, mainly due to increases in population ageing and growth. Although differences in coding for causes of death and the heterogeneity in case-ascertainment methods constitute major challenges to the estimation of the burden of dementia, future analyses should improve on the methods for the correction of these biases. Until breakthroughs are made in prevention or curative treatment, dementia will constitute an increasing challenge to health-care systems worldwide. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Global, regional, and national burden of traumatic brain injury and spinal cord injury, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

    11 January 2019

    BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and spinal cord injury (SCI) are increasingly recognised as global health priorities in view of the preventability of most injuries and the complex and expensive medical care they necessitate. We aimed to measure the incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for TBI and SCI from all causes of injury in every country, to describe how these measures have changed between 1990 and 2016, and to estimate the proportion of TBI and SCI cases caused by different types of injury. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016 to measure the global, regional, and national burden of TBI and SCI by age and sex. We measured the incidence and prevalence of all causes of injury requiring medical care in inpatient and outpatient records, literature studies, and survey data. By use of clinical record data, we estimated the proportion of each cause of injury that required medical care that would result in TBI or SCI being considered as the nature of injury. We used literature studies to establish standardised mortality ratios and applied differential equations to convert incidence to prevalence of long-term disability. Finally, we applied GBD disability weights to calculate YLDs. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool for epidemiological modelling, used cause-specific mortality rates for non-fatal estimation, and adjusted our results for disability experienced with comorbid conditions. We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index, a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. FINDINGS: In 2016, there were 27·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24·30-30·30 million) new cases of TBI and 0·93 million (0·78-1·16 million) new cases of SCI, with age-standardised incidence rates of 369 (331-412) per 100 000 population for TBI and 13 (11-16) per 100 000 for SCI. In 2016, the number of prevalent cases of TBI was 55·50 million (53·40-57·62 million) and of SCI was 27·04 million (24·98-30·15 million). From 1990 to 2016, the age-standardised prevalence of TBI increased by 8·4% (95% UI 7·7 to 9·2), whereas that of SCI did not change significantly (-0·2% [-2·1 to 2·7]). Age-standardised incidence rates increased by 3·6% (1·8 to 5·5) for TBI, but did not change significantly for SCI (-3·6% [-7·4 to 4·0]). TBI caused 8·1 million (95% UI 6·0-10·4 million) YLDs and SCI caused 9·5 million (6·7-12·4 million) YLDs in 2016, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 111 (82-141) per 100 000 for TBI and 130 (90-170) per 100 000 for SCI. Falls and road injuries were the leading causes of new cases of TBI and SCI in most regions. INTERPRETATION: TBI and SCI constitute a considerable portion of the global injury burden and are caused primarily by falls and road injuries. The increase in incidence of TBI over time might continue in view of increases in population density, population ageing, and increasing use of motor vehicles, motorcycles, and bicycles. The number of individuals living with SCI is expected to increase in view of population growth, which is concerning because of the specialised care that people with SCI can require. Our study was limited by data sparsity in some regions, and it will be important to invest greater resources in collection of data for TBI and SCI to improve the accuracy of future assessments. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  • Blood Pressure

    21 June 2016

    The Global Burden of Disease 2010 study attributed more deaths to high blood pressure than to any other risk factor. Blood pressure is a well-established risk factor for vascular disease, but important question remain about its importance in different patient groups and for different clinical outcomes.

  • Randomised Trials

    21 June 2016

  • Prospective Studies

    21 June 2016

  • Methods

    21 June 2016

  • Cardiovascular Disease

    29 July 2015

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) includes all the diseases of the heart and circulation including coronary heart disease, angina, heart attack, congenital heart disease and stroke. Despite improvements in the prevention and treatment of CVD in recent decades, it remains the leading cause of death worldwide, particularly in developed countries.

  • Cancer

    21 June 2016

    In 2012, cancer was responsible for around 8 million deaths globally and, despite improvements in survival seen in recent decades, remains a major cause of death. The most common types of cancer in males are lung cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, and stomach cancer, and in females, the most common types are breast cancer, colorectal cancer, lung cancer, and cervical cancer.

  • Kidney Disease

    21 June 2016

    Chronic kidney disease is a significant and growing contributor to the global burden of disease. There are around 60,000 kidney transplants globally per year. There are more than half a million people worldwide with a transplant with many more people waiting for a transplant, so a priority for research is to better understand how treatment can extend the life of transplanted kidneys. People with kidney disease are also at a much higher risk of developing a number of diseases, particularly cardiovascular disease, and so more research is also needed on treatments to prevent these diseases in people with kidney disease.